The politics of the Nile and the boiling dispute for her waters

By Hopes Kikonyogo


The Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has never attended any African Union (AU) summit since 1995 when he escaped an assassination attempt on his life at the Organization of African Unity in Addis. Next week Mr. Mubarak will be sidelining his fears to attend such a summit in Abuja, Nigeria to thwart the threat of encroachers on the Nile. Mr. Mubarak believes his country has more indisputable rights to the Nile than these encroachers, the down stream sub-saharan African nations enjoying the banks of the world longest river, and that the protection of Egypt's right to the Nile is in Egypt's national interest and thus his obligation to act.

The Nile has always been the artery of life for the huge population living on her banks. Under the 1929 treaty, when most of these encroachers were under British rule, Egypt was given sole right of veto to any development on the Nile that threatened the river's flow. The Nile provides more than 95% of Egypt's water needs. Infact Egypt's economic ties and prowess is closely tied to the Nile and is regarded a strategic resource that must be protected at all costs. The 1959 treaty meant to rectify the shortcomings of the 1929 Agreement was bilateral, between Egypt and The Sudan, other Nile beneficiaries were not included or even consulted and no water allotted for future usage by any of these beneficiaries including my Uganda. This serious omission, buried in closets spelt doom to the treaties and is feared to be an opening for armed conflict bigger than that seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The increase in population growth and as more of the southern countries develop their economies the demand for water has increased and yet the supply of this water remained constant, which is a certain recipe for armed conflict. Poverty and internal conflicts in The Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Rwanda, Burundi and Kenya has more than anything else helped postpone conflict over the Nile. But for how long?

Mubarak's predicament is the growth of discontent and strong pressure to revise these treaties, while some countries have begun to simply ignore the treaties. For instance, Tanzania and Ethiopia have begun major irrigation projects using Lake Victoria's waters and at the source of the Blue Nile respectively without consulting with Egypt. Both Uganda and Kenya intend to do the same.

Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania want these treaties scrapped and a new one negotiated. These five countries already have a free-trade agreement and are in the process of finalizing closer political association that will be a clout against Egypt. They have on different occasions called for the abrogation of the 1929/1959 treaties which gave Egypt a right to use 55 billion cubic meters of water from the Nile per annum and The Sudan 18 billion cubic meters, living the rest, including Eritrea and DRC with just 10 billion cubic meters. To such calls for abrogation, Egypt that looks for increments on her allotment has threatened back with military intervention.

Although war has not yet broken out between the nations involved, growing demand may eventually lead to armed conflict. Signs of this trend are already surfacing like numerous skirmishes between The Sudan and Egypt and the political statements being made. Other nations like Uganda and Tanzania now classify access to the waters of the nile as a vital national interest over which they are willing to go to war, thus the consolidation of the East African Community to strengthen their stance.

It is high time Mubarak and his sympathizers danced to the tunes of reality. All the nations involved have equal historical rights to the Nile. He should agree to the harmonization of the use of the Nile by having traditional rights counter-balanced by obligations towards each other. The 1929 and 1959 agreements between Egypt and Sudan are not binding onto the other nations as they were not party to these agreements. They must therefore be revised to include the interests of other countries sharing the Nile. This summit should give the African Union a rare chance to set up a clearly defined water authority designated as the facilitator, mediator or adjudicator. It should also Institute an efficient water use that promotes and rewards conservation of water with a well defined storage structure evening out-flows and guaranteeing supply meets demand. African Union's hands are full, but this is a catastrophy waiting to happen, thus the need for urgency in resolving this conflict ..."embulire tefa yonna"